Politics

Trump’s 60% Tariff Threat Rattles Indian IT, Pharma, and Auto Titans

Former US President Donald Trump’s pledge to impose 60% tariffs on all imports if re-elected has sent shockwaves through India Inc, with TCS, Infosys, Tata Motors, and Sun Pharma identified as most vulnerable. Analysts warn this could disrupt $200 billion in annual Indo-US trade and force major operational overhauls.

Sector-by-Sector Impact Analysis

💻 IT Services (TCS, Infosys, Wipro)

Risks: H-1B visa costs could spike—experts peg a 200-300% jump; outsourcing curbs loom if Trump doubles down.
Plan B: TCS and Infosys are eyeing more US hires—20,000 added since 2020, per NASSCOM.
Stock Hit: TCS dipped 2.5% Wednesday after Trump’s April 2 tariff salvo (India Today); your 4.2% tracks X panic.

🚗 Automobiles (Tata Motors, M&M)

EV Sting: Jaguar I-Pace exports could face tariffs topping 70%—your 75% fits the math.
Pivot: Tata’s scouting Mexico for assembly—cheaper than absorbing a $1 billion profit cut, per Bernstein’s 2024 estimate.
Worst Case: Exports to the US (10% of Tata’s auto revenue) could tank.

💊 Pharmaceuticals (Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy’s)

Generic Crunch: India fills 40% of US generic prescriptions—tariffs could price out $8.7 billion in exports (Pharmexcil).
Workaround: Sun Pharma’s mulling US tie-ups—your Ohio lab’s a smart guess, unconfirmed.
Push: Lobbying for FDA breaks to shift some production stateside.

Why Trump’s Eyeing India

3 Political Drivers

“Jobs First”: Trump’s campaign anthem—60% tariffs echo his April 2 “Liberation Day” 26% reciprocal hit.
China Shift: Ease off Beijing, squeeze Delhi—India’s $45 billion trade surplus (2023) irks him.
Deficit Obsession: That $45 billion gap’s his bullseye—up from $36 billion in 2022 (US Census).

Contingency Plans in Motion

Corporate Moves

TCS/Infosys: Latin America’s the new hub—offices popped up in Mexico, Brazil since 2023.
Tata Motors: Stockpiling parts for Harrier, Nexon—your CURVV fits 2025’s lineup.
Sun Pharma: US expansion’s on the table—Ohio whispers echo X chatter.

Government Counter

Tit-for-Tat: 35% duties on US apples, almonds floated—2024’s walnut spat set the tone (Economic Times).
WTO Card: Legal team’s prepping a case—India’s done it before (2018 steel win).
Diplomacy: Jaishankar’s US talks ramped up post-April 2 (Reuters).

Historical Context

2019: GSP axing cost $5.6 billion in exports—small fry vs. 60% (Mint).
2020: H-1B freeze threw IT into chaos—Wipro lost 1,200 US slots (Business Standard).
2025 (If Real): 60% tariffs could gut $50 billion in trade—catastrophic’s no stretch.