Politics
Trump Dangles Tariff Cuts to Snag TikTok Deal—Will China Bite?
In a dramatic twist to the TikTok ownership saga, sources reveal Donald Trump may offer tariff reductions on Chinese imports as leverage to force ByteDance’s divestment. This high-stakes gambit could either defuse a tech cold war or trigger Beijing’s retaliation ahead of the 2024 US election.
The Proposed Trade-Off
President Donald Trump’s playing hardball with China again. After slapping 25% tariffs on auto imports March 26, he’s now hinting at easing some China tariffs to get ByteDance to ditch TikTok’s U.S. arm. It’s a wild card that could cool tech tensions—or blow up in his face.
What Trump Wants
- Full U.S. Handover: TikTok’s American ops sold to U.S. buyers—Oracle and Walmart are still in the mix.
- Algorithm Keys: China’s guarded code, the app’s secret sauce—Beijing’s sworn to keep it locked.
- Fast Clock: Deal by April 5, or TikTok’s banned—75-day extension from January’s deadline’s ticking.
What China Might Get
- A rollback on some of the $50 billion in electronics tariffs from 2018’s Section 301 hit list.
- Maybe a breather for Huawei—less heat on bans if ByteDance plays ball.
- A way to save face without losing TikTok entirely to a U.S. shutdown.
Why This Deal’s Shaky
Beijing’s Hard No’s
- Those algorithms? China tagged them “export-restricted” in 2020—national treasure status.
- Xi Jinping’s not keen on looking soft—caving to Trump could spark a homegrown backlash.
- “Digital surrender” vibes—selling out to the U.S. stinks of weakness to hardliners.
Trump’s Tightrope
- Pals like Oracle’s Larry Ellison want this bad—big win for U.S. tech if it lands.
- Rust Belt voters might howl—tariff cuts could sting factory towns he’s courting.
- CFIUS could nix it—half-measures like data tweaks won’t pass security muster.
Potential Outcomes
- Full Win (30%): TikTok’s U.S. ops and code go American—stocks jump, tech truce holds.
- Middle Ground (50%): Data stays U.S.-based, no algorithm swap—limps along, fights later.
- Crash and Burn (20%): No deal by April 5, TikTok’s out—China might smack Apple or Tesla back.
Industry Reactions
- “This is a shakedown—170 million U.S. users are the bargaining chip,” says a tech columnist on X.
- “Xi won’t trade core tech for a tariff break—those algorithms aren’t leaving,” a China watcher told reporters.
Global Ripple Effects
- Europe’s Radar: EU might copy this for TikTok there—Germany’s already sniffing around.
- ByteDance’s Worth: $225 billion could tank if the U.S. market’s yanked—investors are antsy.
- Political Heat: Dems are circling—calling it a soft-on-China sellout if tariffs drop.
What’s Next?
- April 5: ByteDance’s do-or-die deadline—sell or shut down.
- April-May: CFIUS digs into whatever deal lands—security’s the sticking point.
- Summer: If it flops, expect China’s counterpunch—U.S. brands in the crosshairs.
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