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India Should Suspend Indus Waters Treaty Indefinitely After Pahalgam Attack: Ex-Envoy to Russia
The deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, has sparked a fierce push to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan. Former Indian ambassador Kanwal Sibal urged an indefinite halt, citing Pakistan’s alleged role in the April 22 attack that killed 28 civilians, mostly tourists, in one of Kashmir’s worst strikes since 2019’s Pulwama.
Why the Push to Suspend the Treaty?
- 1960 Pact: The World Bank-brokered IWT gives India control of the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej—20% of Indus system water) and Pakistan the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab—80%).
- Terror Link: India accuses Pakistan of backing The Resistance Front (TRF), a Lashkar-e-Taiba offshoot claiming the attack, fueling calls to rethink water sharing.
- Past Threats: Post-2016 Uri and 2019 Pulwama attacks, India hinted at using the IWT as leverage but held back. Pahalgam’s toll has reignited the debate.
Sibal’s Case for Suspension
Kanwal Sibal, ex-ambassador and JNU Chancellor, posted on X: “It is time to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty indefinitely as a truly meaningful response to the latest terrorist outrage in Pahalgam instigated by Pakistan. Blood and water can’t go together.” His arguments:
✔ Strategic Leverage: Use water to pressure Pakistan over state-backed terror.
✔ Broken Trust: The treaty’s goodwill is undermined by Pakistan’s proxy war.
✔ Assert Rights: India should maximize western river use for Jammu and Kashmir’s needs.
What Suspension Could Mean
- Legal Fallout: Suspension isn’t revocation but would strain ties, likely drawing World Bank scrutiny. Pakistan called revocation an “act of war” in 2016.
- Water Control: India could build dams or divert western river water for irrigation and hydropower, allowed under IWT but long contested by Pakistan.
- Global Echoes: China, with Brahmaputra dam projects, might back Pakistan. The U.S., per Sibal, could support India given Trump’s anti-terror stance.
Pakistan’s Indus Lifeline
Pakistan’s Punjab and Sindh rely on the Indus basin for 90% of agriculture, feeding millions. Cutting flows could tank its economy and spark unrest, especially amid existing power and debt crises. X posts warn Pakistan’s Punjab “could dry up this summer” if India acts.
India’s Stance and Options
- Past Moves: In 2016, India paused IWT talks post-Uri, and in 2024, it sought treaty review over Pakistan’s project objections.
- 2025 Debate: Hardliners push for suspension; moderates eye renegotiation or dams like Kishanganga II.
- Possible Steps:
- Fast-track hydropower projects on western rivers, per IWT rights.
- Gradually reduce water flows to signal intent, avoiding a humanitarian crisis.
Global Precedents
- Nile Tensions: Ethiopia’s GERD dam has choked Egypt’s water, raising war talk.
- Brahmaputra Concerns: China’s dams upstream worry India and Bangladesh.
Will India Pull the Trigger?
Public fury post-Pahalgam—28 dead, including two foreigners—has PM Modi under pressure. He cut short a Saudi trip, and Home Minister Amit Shah hit Srinagar to review security. Suspending the IWT could redraw India-Pakistan ties but risks global backlash and escalation. Official word from Delhi is pending—stay tuned.
